WEMO 2025 (complet) - Flipbook - Page 10
W E M O 202 5
O U T LO O K
Asia-Paci昀椀c led the growth, with China’s consumption rising
by 7% due to coal-to-gas switching and power sector demand
growth, and India’s by 10% fueled by industrial and cooling needs.
North America’s gas consumption grew by 1.8% notably driven
by power generation needs. Europe’s consumption remained
昀氀attish (+1%), due to high gas storage levels, renewables
growth, and EU demand-reduction policies extended through
March 2025.
The global LNG market tightened due to limited new capacity,
with prices rising but remaining below 2022–2023 peaks. It will
likely change in 2025–2026 with mega LNG projects entering
production, such as Plaquemines LNG, Copus Christi Stage 3 and
Golden Pass LNG. These three projects are projected to increase
U.S. LNG export capacity by nearly 50% from 2024 levels.37
34https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/natural-gas
35https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/energy-utilities-resources/library/future-of-lng.
html#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20global%20natural%20gas%20consumption%20rose%20
by,growth%20due%20to%20industrial%20expansion%20and%20decarbonization%20efforts.
36This was above the 2% annual average growth rate from 2010 to 2019 and well above the rate of
around 1% between 2019 and 2023.
On the demand side, Asia-Paci昀椀c dominated LNG imports,
contributing 70% of global demand. Europe’s LNG imports
remained stable at 150 bcm representing 45% of its gas supply,
with the US supplying 46% of EU LNG.
Over the next 昀椀ve years, LNG supply capacity is projected to
grow at an 8.35% CAGR driven by U.S. and Qatar expansions.
Asia, particularly China and India, will drive demand growth,
while Europe’s demand may peak due to decarbonization
e昀昀orts.
• As for electricity, gas prices showed significant
regional disparities. Europe faced higher prices and
the US bene昀椀ted from abundant domestic production.
In 2024, LNG prices globally averaged $10.05-$14.23/
MMBtu40,41, signi昀椀cantly higher than pipeline natural gas
due to liquefaction, shipping, and regasi昀椀cation costs 42.
Europe’s TTF43 hub44 saw pipeline gas prices at $10.37-$13.98/
37https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64884
38https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/global-lng-market-industry
39https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/liquefied-natural-gas-lng-market
40https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9133us3m.htm
41
https://www.statista.com/statistics/252984/
landed-prices-of-liquefied-natural-gas-in-selected-regions-worldwide/
MMBtu, driven by supply constraints, while U.S. Henry Hub
pipeline gas prices averaged $2.21-$3.26/MMBtu, supported by
record production and high inventories.45 Key drivers included
Europe’s reduced Russian gas and unplanned Norwegian
facilities outages, contrasted with U.S. production strength.
LNG prices in Asia, notably Japan and China, were aligned
with Europe’s LNG prices.
• The share of Russian gas in European Union imports
has significantly declined from 2021 to 2024. 46,47
This decline is driven by reduced Russian supply
following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, diversi昀椀cation of
supply, and reduced transportation pipeline capacity.
In 2021, Russia supplied approximately 45% of EU gas imports
(155 billion cubic meters), including both pipeline gas and LNG.
In contrast, in 2024, Russian gas accounted for only 14% of
EU imports (45 bcm, comprising 32 bcm pipeline and 20 bcm
42LNG costs $7-$11/MMBtu more than U.S. pipeline gas and $0-$2/MMBtu more than European
pipeline gas.
43TTF is a Duch gas trading hub operated by Gasunie. It is a reference for the European market
prices
44https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/european-traded-gas-hubs-the-supremacy-of-ttf/
45https://www.statista.com/statistics/252791/natural-gas-prices/
46https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-final-push-for-eu-russian-gas-phase-out/
47https://www.statista.com/statistics/1021735/share-russian-gas-imports-eu/
WEMO 2025
Following the supply shock of 2022, natural gas markets moved
towards gradual rebalancing and returned to structural growth
in 2024 (+2.8% compared to 202336). Global gas consumption
exceeded 4,200 billion cubic meters (bcm), with the Asia-Paci昀椀c
region accounting for nearly 45% of the growth due to industrial
expansion and decarbonization e昀昀orts.
In 2024, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG 38,39) accounted for
approximately 13% of the global natural gas market. The U.S.
led exports with a 21% share, followed by Qatar (20%) and
Australia (19%).
9
Natural gas markets returned to growth in 202434,35
