WEMO 2025 (complet) - Flipbook - Page 19
• Battery manufacturing supply chain vulnerabilities
are triggering localization policies: In 2024, China
dominated the global EV battery supply chain, controlling
90% of cathode and 97% of anode material production,121
creating vulnerabilities due to reliance on a single nation.
Fears of disruptions in Chinese supply as the country is handling
80% of NMC and 92% of LFP cathode minerals, are prompting
policies like the EU Battery Regulation to re localize supply
chains. These regulations enforce recycling and alternative
technologies development. Recycling capacity is critical
but still in early stages outside China, which holds
119https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-see-largestdrop-since-2017-falling-to-115-per-kilowatt-hour-bloombergnef/
120https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/
electric-vehicle-battery-prices-are-expected-to-fall-almost-50-percent-by-2025
121https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2025/05/
revamping-automotive-sourcing-electric-vehicle
122
https://cepa.org/article/europes-great-battery-hope-northvolt-loses-power/
123
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/
struggling-northvolt-stokes-fear-europes-battery-future-2024-09-13/
80% of 300 GWh/year. Alternative chemistries as sodium-ion
batteries, reliant on abundant materials are facing delays due
to low lithium prices.
pessimism, increasing investor hesitation and threatening
other ventures like Verkor and ACC, with 60% of
announced EU battery projects now delayed or at risk.
• Northvolt failure could delay European re-location
e昀昀orts: Northvolt, a Swedish EV battery manufacturer, 昀椀led
for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S. in November 2024 and
bankruptcy in Sweden in March 2025, marking the largest
industrial bankruptcy in modern Swedish history. Once a
昀氀agship of Europe’s clean-tech ambitions, Northvolt aimed to
capture 25% of the European battery market by 2030. It raised
over $15 bn in 昀椀nancing, including a $5 bn EU loan, with major
investors like Goldman Sachs and o昀昀 takers like Volkswagen.122
One strategy for European battery manufacturers would be
to bene昀椀t from Chinese knowledge by entering alliances.
Alternatively, attracting Chinese companies to Europe as
France did successfully with Chinese owned AESC 125 allows
both to re-localize the batteries production and to create
local jobs. This is illustrated by the new joint venture between
Stellantis and CATL, the Chinese market leader, to build an
LFP cell plant in Spain.
Its failure stemmed from multiple root causes: inability to scale
up production (producing only 1 GWh of its 32 GWh target by
2023), high capital costs, and supply chain disruptions. Internal
issues included defective battery cells (noted as early as 2022),
management’s failure to address production challenges, and
safety incidents, including two workers' deaths. The loss of
a $2 billion BMW contract in 2024 due to delivery delays
and quality issues further eroded investor confidence.
This collapse significantly impacts Europe’s battery
re-localization policy123,124 highlighting the EU’s struggle
to compete with China’s dominance. It has sparked
124
https://carboncredits.com/northvolts-bankruptcy-how-does-it-impact-europes-batteryindustry/
125
https://battery-news.de/en/2025/06/11/aesc-battery-plant-in-douai-begins-mass-production/
18
• Prices continued to decrease: In 2024, EV lithium-ion
battery pack prices dropped by 20% to a record low of
$115/kWh, the largest decline since 2017, driven by lower
metal prices (e.g., lithium price was down 20%), and wider
use of cost-e昀昀ective LFP batteries. 119 On a regional basis,
average battery pack prices were lowest in China, at $94/
kWh. Packs in the US and Europe were 31% and 48% higher,
re昀氀ecting the higher production costs and lower volumes.
Prices could fall to $80/kWh by 2026, nearing cost parity with
gasoline vehicles 120 thanks to technological advancements,
like cell-to-pack designs and increased energy density.
WEMO 2025
W E M O 202 5
O U T LO O K
