WEMO 2025 (complet) - Flipbook - Page 26
W E M O 202 5
O U T LO O K
√ Fusion targets Target Production and Cost reductions from
~$100,000 per target to cents,
√ Materials and Reactor Design: The intense neutron 昀氀ux from
fusion reactions damages reactor walls, requiring advanced
materials that can withstand years of exposure.
√ Tritium Supply and Breeding: Tritium, a key fusion fuel, is
scarce and expensive. Commercial plants must breed tritium
√ Economic Viability: The high capital cost of building an ICF
plant, estimated at billions of dollars, combined with unproven
operational reliability, makes it di昀케cult to compete with
established energy sources.
Despite some progress, fusion has not yet been proven for
energy usages. The fusion reaction necessitates extreme
temperature conditions raising fundamental questions on
material durability, and scalability.
Barring an unexpected breakthrough, fusion energy
generation is very unlikely to impact climate goals before 2050.
Conclusion: To accelerate nuclear electricity development,
it is essential to maintain rigorous safety standards in plant
operations to prevent accidents that could, on top of the
damage produced, slow down nuclear plant deployment.
Achieving the ambitious COP28 goal of tripling nuclear capacity
by 2050, requires avoiding politically motivated reactor closures,
reopening viable dormant reactors, extending the life of safe
reactors and building numerous new nuclear facilities. New
capacity will combine large-scale reactors (1,000 MW or more)
and small modular reactors (SMRs). China and Russia are
emerging as dominant players in global nuclear development,
while Western countries face challenges with construction
delays and high costs186 that must be overcome.
Finally, unless a major scienti昀椀c breakthrough occurs, nuclear
fusion is unlikely to have a signi昀椀cant impact on electricity
generation by 2050.
WEMO 2025
√ Repetition Rate: ICF requires rapid, repetitive fusion shots
(10–100 per second) to generate continuous power. Current
systems like NIF operate at a few shots per day
in-situ using lithium blankets, but e昀케cient, safe, and scalable
tritium breeding systems are still in early development.
186
Construction costs account for 80% of nuclear electricity’s 昀椀nal cost
25
Even if an ICF experiment achieves a net positive energy gain,
signi昀椀cant challenges must be solved before a 昀椀rst plant
prototype could be built. Among the challenges let’s cite:
