WEMO 2025 (complet) - Flipbook - Page 53
W E M O 202 5
O U T LO O K
Achieving the ambitious COP28 goal of tripling
nuclear capacity by 2050. This goal requires avoiding
Grid infrastructure is the backbone of a successful
energy transition. Yet decision-makers, often unfamiliar
There are no technical silver bullets to meet
2030 goals. Despite promising advancements in energy
politically motivated reactor closures, reopening viable
dormant reactors, extending the life of safe reactors (the
most cost-e昀昀ective option), and building numerous new
nuclear facilities. New nuclear capacity will combine largescale reactors (1,000 MW or more) and small modular reactors
(SMRs). China and Russia are emerging as dominant players in
global nuclear development, while Western countries face
challenges in the form of construction delays and high costs397.
To address this, Western nations must simplify reactor designs
and regulations, reinvigorate the supply chain and promote
nuclear as a low carbon source of energy to attract good
people at all levels from students to researchers, to designers
and skilled workforces.
with the complex mechanisms of grid balancing, tend to
overlook their importance. Grid operators face numerous
challenges, including integrating a growing share of
intermittent renewable energy, managing the closure of
thermal power plants that provide grid stability, adapting to
climate change and extreme weather, mitigating cyberattack
risks, addressing underfunding, navigating complex
regulations, and overcoming public resistance to new
overhead lines, which take several years to build. Digital
technologies will help in addressing grid challenges, but they
alone are not su昀케cient.
technologies, no single innovation, except potentially nuclear
fusion – which is expected to remain pre-industrial until 2050–
is su昀케cient to reach Paris Agreement targets. Thus, large
scale deployment of mature technologies is essential. Those
technologies comprise: enhanced solar panel e昀케ciency,
advanced electrolyzers, high-density batteries with reduced
environmental and mining impacts, and generation III nuclear
reactors.
398
WEMO 2025
Construction costs account for 80% of nuclear electricity’s 昀椀nal cost
Power outages cost the U.S. economy $150 billion annually https://greenridgesolar.com/
price-perils-power-outages-battery-backup/
399
https://www.americanexperiment.org/the-levelized-cost-of-blackouts/
400
Comparable to the solar generation cost
397
AI and Gen AI will transform the energy sector. This
is especially true in the cases of electricity generation and grid
capacity. Over the next ten to 昀椀fteen years, we can expect to
see utilities increasingly adopting Gen AI, which will also
necessitate signi昀椀cant workforce reskilling. Data quality,
privacy, and ethical concerns are critical, alongside the need
to curb electricity demand from GenAI-driven data centers.
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For SMRs to contribute signi昀椀cantly, serial production across
countries and harmonized safety standards are essential.
They still must prove their cost e昀昀ectiveness. This “nuclear
renaissance” in the West requires sustained political support,
昀椀nancing and public approval. Finally, unless a major scienti昀椀c
breakthrough occurs, nuclear fusion is unlikely to have a
signi昀椀cant impact on electricity generation before 2050.
Simplifying regulations, especially for approving new power
lines, revising pricing to fund necessary investments
(equipment and digital), and aligning renewable energy
production growth with grid capacity are critical. Grids will
likely continue to face di昀케culties in their e昀昀orts to balance
supply and demand, leading to negative prices, curtailment,
power outages 398 and even blackouts. According to the
“Center of the American Experiment”399 the average levelized
cost of blackouts in the US is likely to grow from an average of
$4.90/ MWh during the 2024-2028 period to an average of
nearly $50/MWh400 during the 2039-2043 period as more
blackouts occur. The root causes of these increased blackouts
are uncontrolled growth of renewables and lack of grid
adaptation.
Governments and institutions should enhance the legal and
昀椀nancial frameworks to facilitate the large-scale deployment
of these proven technologies. The private sector should boost
its investments, provided they yield pro昀椀table returns.
Maintaining R&D e昀昀orts is important for longer-term
improved solutions.
