WEMO 2025 (complet) - Flipbook - Page 58
02 Critical resources
Rare earths are not geologically rare, while some seemingly abundant resources face growing supply risks
Resources
Projected Years of Reserves
by 2040
Demand Growth Rate
by 2040 (%)
Aggregates
Not reliable
143%
River sand
Not reliable
55%
Nickel
20-25
135%
Iron Ore & Steel
60-70
20%
Copper
30-35
30%
Bitumen
40-50
75%
Rare Earths
20-25
195%
Lithium
15-20
410%
Source: Capgemini Invent 2025 analysis, IEA – Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; Global Energy Association
– Lithium and Cobalt Outlook (2025), Mining Weekly – Copper, Nickel, Rare Earths, Lithium (2025)
Reserves of copper, cobalt, and bitumen (linked to oil
reserves) are expected to decline by 2040, with projected
reserve lifespans from that year estimated at 100 years
for copper, 60 years for cobalt, and 120 years for bitumen.
For rare earth elements and lithium, the main challenge is
not the volume of reserves but rather the economic and
environmental feasibility of extracting them at viable
concentrations. This highlights the need to develop new
mining capacities and processing technologies, rather
than relying solely on current reserve estimates.
Contrary to popular belief, sand and aggregates that are
incorporated in concrete, are not easily accessible. In fact,
the sand used for roads and civil engineering projects
must meet very speci昀椀c criteria such as grain sizes,
cleanliness, and composition to ensure structural
integrity and durability.
Huge volume requirements are already causing regional
shortages due to overexploitation, environmental
degradation (for the record, sand & aggregates extraction
and production require 0.059 m³/kg of water), and
subsequent regulatory constraints and restrictive policies.
