WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 15
Global
Outlook
In the EU, variable renewables penetration is expected to reach
in 2028, more than 50% in seven countries, (90% in Denmark).
Although EU interconnections help integrate solar PV and wind
generation, grid bottlenecks will pose significant challenges
and lead to increased curtailment in many countries.
47 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56880
48 CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
49 In Germany wind offshore generation is located in North sea while electricity demand is mainly
in the South of the country
Consequences on new projects profitability: Renewables
and nuclear being energy generation with a very high capex
proportion in the kWh final cost, frequent episodes of
curtailment (meaning hours with no revenue while cost have
already occurred) negatively impacts their profitability. This
lowered Return on Investment questions the attractiveness
of new constructions.
For renewables, the question arises less because they benefit
from subsidies of various kinds (“Contract for Difference”, tax
exemption, subsidies, etc.)52 while it arises in Europe for new
nuclear plants constructions.
Given the grid balancing problems related to intermittent
renewable energies such as solar and wind, nuclear dispatchable
50 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/
chinas-blistering-solar-power-growth-runs-into-grid-blocks-2024-05-22/
51 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/
chinas-blistering-solar-power-growth-runs-into-grid-blocks-2024-05-22/
52 These subsidies, paid by the end customer or the taxpayer, have enabled the development of
wind and solar electricity generation, they should now be removed as they distort the electricity
markets functioning.
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electricity (see above) and storable renewable energies
development should be accelerated.
First hydropower:53 It remains the largest renewable source
of electricity, generating more than all other renewable
technologies combined. It provides a range of electricity grids
services, such as storage and flexibility to balance solar and
wind intermittency.
Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) provides more than 90% of
all stored energy in the world. It can store months of electricity
consumption, while batteries allow only a few hours.
The more variable renewable electricity (solar and wind) is
developed the more pumped hydropower will be required to
provide grid balance.
In 2023, global hydropower fleet grew to 1,416GW. Conventional
hydropower capacity grew less than previous years by 7.2GW to
1,237GW, while pumped storage hydropower grew by 6.5GW
to 179GW.
Capacity increases are going on an average at about half the
rate they need to be on the pathway to net zero.
WEMO 2024
Curtailment: When those services don’t exist or are insufficient,
grid operators have curtailed renewables and sometimes
nuclear generation.
In 2023, PV and wind generation curtailment has increased
in many European countries, notably in Germany where it
reached 8%. The main reason is that grid expansion did not
keep pace with offshore wind growth (located in the North
of Germany) and geographical consumption location (in the
South of Germany).49
In the USA, wind electricity curtailment was in 2022 at an
average of 5.3%(increasing over the last years).
China has tried to limit curtailment of renewable energy to
5%.50 However, it can be larger: for example, curtailment for
Huaneng Power International, a major state-owned generator,
rose to 7.7% in Q1 2024 from 3.1% in 2023.
Moreover, in a survey of six provinces' ability to absorb
distributed solar 51, China's energy regulator found five provinces
expected to have to impose restrictions on new renewable
projects in 2024.
53 Hydropower https://www.hydropower.org/publications/2024-world-hydropower-outlook
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The duck curve47: As more solar capacity comes online, grid
operators in sunny regions as California have observed a drop
in power load in the middle of the day when solar generation
tends to be highest. This dip is followed by a steep rise in the
evenings when solar generation drops off. This load pattern is
called the “duck curve”. As solar capacity continues to grow,
the midday dip in load is getting lower and the following rise
is getting stiffer, presenting challenges for grid operators. This
situation has created a large blackout in California during the
2020 summer. Since then, the State has adopted a plan to build
dispatchable generation plants (i.e CCGTs48)
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