WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 24
Global
Outlook
Manufacturers have announced plans for further expansion,
aiming to reach 155 GW/year of manufacturing capacity by 2030,
but only 8% of this capacity has at least reached FID.101
The SISYPHE study102 shows a huge gap between the EU
objectives and the low-carbon hydrogen demand projection in
Europe by 2040. The low emission hydrogen demand projected
by the study is thus 2.5 million tonnes in 2030 and 9 million
tonnes in 2040, a huge gap with the objectives set by the
European Commission of 20 million tonnes per year by 2030!!
Moreover, in its July 17,2024 report the European Court of
Auditors has stated that “2030 EU goals for renewable hydrogen
production and demand were overly ambitious”103
As a conclusion, the growth in low-carbon hydrogen production
has been “oversold” in Europe both by politicians and by the
industrial companies involved. Governments should review their
unrealistic objectives at the risk of spending precious subsidies
not for the right technology and creating stranded assets.
101 FID: Final Investment Decision
102 https://www.cea.fr/presse/Documents/CEA-etude-hydrogene-sisyphe.pdf This projection is
based on the reality of projects committed and on the vision of some 70 European manufacturers
questioned about their potential needs into hydrogen
103 https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/news/NEWS-SR-2024-11
• The penetration of electric cars has slowed, and some countries
such as the UK have pushed back the date of banning the sale
of internal combustion cars from 2030 to 2035.
Today the forecast is for an increase of 3°, even 3.5° by 2050
in global temperature with the disastrous consequences that
we know about.
The question that must be asked is:
• Big oil companies, we are returning to more realistic and
less proactive positions concerning Oil and Gas exploration.
They now acknowledge the need to continue to develop new
fields to cope with the existing fields depletion (even with
unchanged or decreasing oil consumption).
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The objectives of the Paris Agreement will very likely not be met
(barring a major crisis as the Covid pandemics or as a global
war) by 2030.
What should be done to limit the rise in
global temperature?
This means that the objectives of the energy transformation,
as announced by many countries, are too optimistic and too
close in time.
Indeed, this transformation impacts not only the production and
use of energy but also the way of living of our fellow citizens.
It also reduces their purchasing power, which is a key area of
concern that emerges in all opinion polls.
WEMO 2024
The previous analysis shows that low emissions hydrogen
development should be much slower than previously expected
for cost reasons, technical problems, difficulties in long distance
transportation and lack of demand.
As the above analysis shows, the energy transformation is
falling behind schedule
We can give a few more examples:
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