WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 25
Global
Outlook
Current technologies would make it possible to get closer to the
objectives of the Paris agreement if they were deployed at scale.
Of course, research must continue in disruptive technologies
even if it is for a horizon further than 2030.
Let’s first analyse the conditions of deploying at scale present
technologies before analysing some disruptive energy related
technologies and generative AI impact on the sector.
Scaling up existing technologies requires industrialization
efforts, sound regulations (including simplified and accelerated
procedures) faster and greater funding and stronger
public acceptance.
In addition to the acceleration conditions set out above, there
is a need to solve offshore wind turbines technical problems,
resolve the grid balancing problems that arise when the
penetration rate of intermittent renewables is high and ensure
that sovereignty issues will not disrupt these technologies
deployments (see below).
To meet this ambitious target a few things must happen:
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• lifetime extension (up to 80 years) of existing nuclear power
plants,
• large-scale plants new builds acceleration
• SMRs deployment at scale
Nuclear electricity: The 90 pathways for the 1.5°C scenario
considered by the IPCC require on average nuclear energy
capacity to triple and to reach 1 160 gigawatts of electricity
by 2050.105
Cumulative emissions avoided
FIGURE 7
IPCC 1.5° scenarios (2050 average) = 1 160
GW nuclear capacity (based on the average
of IPCC 1.5% scenarios)
Full potential of nuclear contributions to net zero
Conservative projections:
104 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/06/06/iea-urges-countries-to-accelerate-renewablesdeployment/#:~:text=A%20new%20report%20from%20the,decade%2C%20as%20agreed%20
at%20COP28.
80
70
1000
60
800
50
600
40
30
400
20
200
10
0
2020
2025
2030
105 https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_90816/
the-nea-small-modular-reactor-dashboard-second-edition
2035
2040
2045
2050
Small modular reactors
(2035 market outlook)
Large-scale new builds
(under construction)
Long-term operation
(planned)
Ambitious projections:
Small modular reactors (post-2035
market extrapolation)
Large-scale new builds (planned)
Long-term operation (to 80 years)
Source: https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_90816/the-nea-small-modular-reactor-dashboard-second-edition
WEMO 2024
90
1200
Installed capacity (GWe)
Wind and solar power are developing rapidly with photovoltaic
solar production dominating. However, this development is not
fast enough compared to the COP 28 objectives as confirmed
by the June 2024 IEA report.104 Analysed policies, plans, and
estimates of almost 150 countries reveal an intention to install
nearly 8,000 GW of renewables worldwide by 2030, representing
70% of the required(11000GW) amount to achieve the tripling
goal by 2030 agreed at the COP 28. Moreover, governmental
targets that are usually too optimistic are rarely met.
1400
25
Existing technologies deployment
acceleration:
Cumulative CO₂ emissions avoided
(GtCO₂)
100
