WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 33
Global
Outlook
Most government-funded efforts have focused on magnetic
confinement machine called tokamaks, such as the international
€20bn cost ITER project under construction in France. However,
this huge project is undergoing a major setback: in June 2024 it
has announced an €5billion extra cost and a 10 year delay.131 The
first plasma is now planned for 2035 and the start of deuteriumtritium operation in 2045!
A more promising technology is based on laser confinement.
In December 2022, researchers at Lawrence Livermore
Laboratories in the USA have ignited an inertial confinement
nuclear fusion reaction that produced a net return on energy.132
Many national programs have been announced by governments
to catalyse the establishment of this new industry.133 There
has also been an exponential increase in the establishment of
private laser fusion companies.
131 https://www.newscientist.com/
article/2437314-is-the-worlds-biggest-fusion-experiment-dead-after-new-delay-to-2035/
132 https://www.photonics.com/Articles/Nuclear_Fusion_Drives_Laser_Development/a68807
133 These include the U.S. IFE S&T Hubs (IFE STAR) and the UK’s fusion energy roadmap, and
Germany has published its Memorandum on Inertial Fusion Energy.
A lot of developments on laser and photonics technology,
deuterium-tritium targets manufacturing, large supply chain
for lasers and photonics construction needs to occur before
commercial deployment can take place. Nuclear fusion will also
require appropriate and comprehensive monitoring by safety
authorities.134 Finally funding is crucial as for example building
an ignition-scale machine for a credible ignition experiment by
the 2030s will cost around $2.5billion.
It is doubtful that all these challenges will be overcome on a
short enough timescale to support the fight against climate
change by 2030.
In the meantime, promising Generation IV nuclear reactors
could be built by 2030-2040.
Let’s recall that during World War II, to propel submarines,
the American company, Westinghouse developed light water
nuclear reactors LWR.135 This technology was then scaled up and
adopted by many European (including Russia) and Asia countries
134 https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/energy/
nuclear-fusion-the-true-the-false-and-the-uncertain/
135 Using French research done by Frédéric Joliot Curie
136 PWR: Pressurized Water Reactors
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that built PWRs136 or BWRs137. This technology represents most
of the Generation II reactors that are operating presently.
Following nuclear incidents and a few accidents, increased
safety features were included in Generation III reactors as the
EPR(Europe), AP1000(USA), VVER 1200(Russia) or Hualong
One(China).
Other technologies that were developed in the U.S. DOE, the
French CEA National laboratories and the Russian Kurchatov
Institute were not (for various reason) deployed at large
commercial scale. Presently, these technologies are considered
again to build reactors, but unlike previously, the industrial
deployment is focused on small modular reactors called AMRs
(Advanced Modular Reactors)
It is to prepare for these Generation IV reactors deployment
that thirteen countries138 created in 2001, the Generation IV
International Forum (GIF) seeking to develop the research
necessary to test the feasibility and performance of fourth
generation nuclear reactors. The GIF has selected six reactor
technologies139 for further research and development. These
technologies are often those developed since the 80’s and 90’s
in the National Laboratories mentioned above. Their designs
include thermal and fast neutrons, closed and open fuel cycles.
The reactors range in size from very small to very large.
138 Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Japan, Korea, Russia, South Africa,
Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States), as well as Euratom.
139 These 6 technologies are: the gas-cooled fast reactor (GFR), the lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR),
the molten salt reactor (MSR), the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), the supercritical-water-cooled
reactor (SCWR) and the very high-temperature reactor (VHTR).
WEMO 2024
Nuclear advanced technologies
Fusion is often considered as the energy source of the future
because its fuel can be extracted from seawater. It would
produce no carbon emissions and only relatively short-lived
radioactive waste.
The Chinese government’s current five-year plan makes research
facilities for fusion projects a priority for the country’s science
and technology. China could be spending $1.5bn each year on
fusion, almost double what the USA government allocate in
2024 for this research.
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Be prepared for disruptive technologies
deployment after 2040
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