WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 39
Global
Outlook
By mid-2024, China's energy administration has declared that
it will meet its 2030 renewable energy targets by the end of
2024.159
Tariffs and embargos: since a few years, to protect their domestic
industry, Western countries (especially the USA) have voted
tariffs on Chinese equipment.
announced that their own tariffs on Chinese EVs would rise to
an unprecedented 102.5 %. In August 2024 Canada followed by
imposing 100% tariffs on China-made electric cars.165
With such industrial development and exportation capacities,
China is increasing year after year its dominance on the energy
sector. Let’s analyse this in more detail.
In 2024, the USA tariff rate on solar cells increased from 25% to
50%. This tariff increase aims to counter China manufacturers
to sell in the USA solar cells at discounted prices inhibiting the
development of domestic solar cell capacity.
A recent illustration of USA manufacturers difficulties is
SunPower, that in August 2024 filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy
and is winding down its operations164
Moreover, the USA administration has raised import tariffs on
battery cells from China used in electric vehicles and energy
storage systems. In 2024, tariffs for electric vehicle battery
cells will increase to 25%, with energy storage tariffs increases
following in 2026.
However, these measures will have a limited effect:
• For energy storage, while a tariff increases to 25% for cells
is notable, it may have its impact softened by expected price
reductions. In the 2023 summer, battery cell prices in China
ranged from $120/kWh to $130/kWh but were expected to
drop to $40/kWh or less in 2024 summer. A 25% tariff on a
battery price around $40/kWh, results in an increase of just
$10/kWh. This increase remains modest compared to the
overall price reduction of around $80/kWh.
On June 12, 2024, following an anti-subsidy investigation, the
European Commission disclosed that it would provisionally
impose import tariffs ranging from 27.4% to 48.1% on electric
vehicles (EVs) from China. This comes a month after the USA
The question is whether to fight against the massive arrival of
Chinese clean equipment’s (which contributes to the energy
transition cost decrease ) or try to find alliances.
164 https://www.reuters.com/legal/
us-bankruptcy-court-approves-stalking-horse-bid-sunpower-assets-2024-08-29/
165 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/
trudeau-says-canada-impose-100-tariff-chinese-evs-2024-08-26/
WEMO 2024
159 China On Track To Meet 2030 Renewable Energy Targets By The End Of 2024
A new report from the China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute (CREEI) research body has
stated that the country is likely to meet its 2030 renewable energy targets, an impressive 6 years
ahead of target. This is for the most part due to incredibly quick growth in the solar and wind
sectors which was apparent in 2023 and continues throughout 2024.
By the end of 2024, China is expected to add 260GW of renewable energy capacity, after previously
adding just over 300GW in 2023. This meant that last year, China provided 60% of all global
renewable energy
160 It installed 300GW in 2023
161 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/02/06/companies/us-solar-indian-china/
162 https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/
china-spare-solar-climate-energy-opportunity/#supporting-material
163 https://climateinsider.com/2024/03/15/
unpacking-chinas-solar-panel-overproduction-a-global-perspective/
• Solar cells: the direct USA import of solar cells from China is
less than 1% and Chinese solar panel enter the USA market
though other countries supplies (notably through India).
39
On the equipment side, for example, China has a PV Solar panels
production capacity much larger than its own needs. It produces
around 80 to 90% of key elements of the PV solar global chain
as wafers and cells. For 2024 analysts expect China to add 500600 GW of PV module production capacity, while it should
install around 260 GW of new capacity.160 This will result in a
significant overcapacity that will be sold notably in Europe (as
the USA supply only 1% of their imports directly from China161)162
threatening the existing domestic manufacturers.163
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