WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 74
Which net zero
pathway are we on?
Scenarios for minimizing climate impacts
You’ve heard about 1.5- and 2-degree scenarios, which provide
targets to achieve by 2050 to prevent (or delay) some of the
more catastrophic consequences of climate change. You may
have even heard about the IEA’s NZE (net zero emissions)
scenario, which lays out one example of what the energy mix
would need to transition to in the next 26 years.
It is impossible to know which model or scenario will be closest
to reality, but a pattern is noticeable in each.
Fossil fuels remain a key part of the energy mix
To accommodate the projected growth in energy demand, all sources
of energy will still be required, including fossil fuels. In fact, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) mostly likely
scenario for 2050 indicates that fossil fuels will still need to make
up as much as 43% of the energy mix. Low-carbon energy sources
simply cannot grow at a fast enough pace to fill this gap. Since oil and
gas production is naturally depletive, continued investment must be
made to accommodate an additional 55 million equivalent barrels per
day needed by 2050.
HOME
FIGURE 2
2050 Energy mix
Quadrillion Btu
2050
800
(IPSS Likely Below 2°C Range)
18%
600
(9-95%)
5%
Each scenario is comprised of thousands of assumptions, from
advances in technology to changes in regulation.
The IEA NZE scenario is viewed as a goal post, but scientists
and economists around the world comment that it is highly
unrealistic, as demonstrated in the following two pages.
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10%
13%
30%
33%
5%
6%
400
25%
51%
15%
17%
(6-36%)
18%
10%
9%
200
8%
55%
5%
(2-42%)
Non-biomas renewables
(0-20%)
Bioenergy
19%
Nuclear
47%
12%
32%
38%
3%
(14-57%)
0
2021
IEA STEPS
IEA APS
IEA NZE
IPCC Likely
Below 2°C
Age
62
52
62
Enrgy use per person (MMBTU/perosn/year)
74
72
Coal
Oil & Gas
15%
Source: ExxonMobil 2023 global outlook, IEA world energy outlook 2023, IPCC sixth assessment report
https://spotlight.bloomberg.com/story/global-oil-outlook-to-2050/page/4/2
WEMO 2024
There are no realistic scenarios for
achieving 100% carbon-free energy
by 2050
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