WEMO24-Compiled Report-Interactive compressed (002) 4154-7882-8116 v.1 - Flipbook - Page 99
1. The great hydrogen recalibration: From a
universal decarbonizer vector to strategic
niche player
A. This situation is explained by the increasing costs of lowcarbon hydrogen production, competition
• Hydrogen produced by electrolysis will not decarbonize
all uses
When hydrogen strategies emerged across developed
countries about four years ago (the French hydrogen
strategy was launched in September 2020 and now more
than 50 national strategies are deployed worldwide), lowcarbon hydrogen was seen as a vector for decarbonizing
numerous sectors. Indeed, the role of hydrogen as a means
of decarbonization was very broad, including mobility,
industry, stationary storage, heating, etc., with very
ambitious goals.
• To meet these decarbonization needs, the goals are far
too ambitious. Only certain uses have strong potential:
heavy industry and air/maritime mobility.
Whatever the source, 90 million tons of low-carbon
hydrogen by 2030 would be enough to sustain claims that
the world is on track to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
But is this realistic? After all, 150 million tons in 2030
would be a 50% increase over the current 95 million tons
of annual demand in seven years. This would only require a
6% compound annual growth rate. The International Energy
Agency’s (IEA) October 2021 net zero by 2050 roadmap
showed a figure of 212 million tons of hydrogen by 2030
(150 million must be low-carbon).
The 2023 update of this roadmap saw the IEA reduce the
total figure to 150 million tons in 2030 and drop the lowcarbon figure to 70 million.
Projection
Total hydrogen demand
by 2030 (million tons)
Low-carbon hydrogen
demand by 2030
(million tons)
2021 Roadmap
net zero by 2050
2023 Roadmap
Update
212
150
150
70
The evolving landscape has led to a strategic refocusing of
hydrogen's role. It's no longer about replacing every fossil
fuels molecule but about identifying sectors where its
unique properties align with decarbonization challenges.
This includes sectors with high-temperature processes that
are difficult to electrify directly (e.g., steelmaking, chemical
NEXT
ARTICLE
industry) and sectors that rely on liquid fuels for longdistance transportation (e.g., aviation, shipping).
HOME
Hard-to-abate sectors: Betting on
hydrogen's unproven promises
PREVIOUS
ARTICLE
In Europe, the steel and refinery sectors are leading the
way, with first projects under construction. In France, the
200 MW Normand'HY project, initiated by H2V and acquired
by Air Liquide, has entered the construction phase. It will
supply 15 kta to TotalEnergies' oil complex in Normandy.
In Portugal, Galp invested in a 100 MW production capacity
for its Sines refinery; and in Rotterdam, Shell's Hydrogen
Holland project is also under construction to supply 25 kta
to the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park. In Germany, RWE
plans to commission 300 MW of electrolysis capacity in three
stages by 2027. The aim of the project, GET H2 Nukleus,
is to initiate the development of a regional hydrogen
infrastructure together with partners.
“After a period of adjustment to the reality of green hydrogen
prices, industrial offtakers are now ready to enter into longterm agreements with producers. The example is the massive
tenders launched by German steelmakers (SHS, Thyssenkrupp
and Salzgitter AG) or by TotalEnergies to supply six of its
European refineries. This means almost one million tons a
year of low-carbon or renewable hydrogen by 2030.”
WEMO 2024
Focus hydrogen on hard
to abate industries
99
07
